Key Points The expectation is that the wheat market will put in a short term low until the impact of the cold snap and dry conditions in the US can be assessed. Ramp up sales of old season wheat in the second half of January against any lift in the market and short term demand
Key Points – Wheat prices have fallen $4—$5/t over the last week, and $9/t over the last month. The drop in basis levels is having the biggest impact on prices at the moment. The Australian market is transitioning from a forward market to a harvest market where we expect basis levels to come under pressure.
Key Points – Dec wheat futures have lifted by A$16.35/t over the last week. In US terms futures are back above the June – August average signalling a lower risk for those who want to add to forward sales. Lower basis levels are hitting our prices so our cash prices are still lagging the June – August
Key Points – Dec wheat futures have good support at around 640 USc / bu on the charts APW Pt Adelaide has slipped to $261 per tonne with futures near the bottom of their trading range, a lift in the dollar, and a further small drop in basis levels. The big risk for wheat is
Key Points – The A$ value of US futures have now pushed below the lows seen in August. APW at Pt Adelaide is now below the price base of $271 per tonne that has been in place since April. As expected, the price drivers for this year’s June—August period are different and are not currently
Key Points – Last week’s USDA Report was negative for grain markets and wheat in particular. Global wheat stock estimates were lifted by 3.29 mill t, to move from a small rundown in global stocks to now a 2.43 mill t lift in stocks year on year. Global wheat production is set to hit a
Key Points – US wheat futures are still in a downward trend and will come under pressure as the corn harvest advances despite the recent hot, dry weather. The Australian crop is getting smaller, with some analysts suggesting a fall of 2.5 mill t after recent frosts and dry weather Prices in NSW and Vic
Strategy – Although forward sales programs should be locked in by now, there will still be growers looking to add to sales. There is potential for down side in prices as the US corn crop comes in, particularly if conditions for the soybean crop stabilise. However,in years like this where average A$ futures prices in
Strategy – Forward sales programs should be complete by now, with the prices above $280/t from late June to early August providing an unexpected opportunity to lock in more tonnage after we at least had some production potential in place. For those short on sales for harvest cashflow, plan on having to wait as long
Key Points – The USDA Report was mildly supportive for wheat on the back of the decline in US stock estimates, but this was largely cancelled out by the lift in projected global ending stocks. The year on year drop in wheat stocks against record production will increase risk premiums built into prices in early
